Biden is Beatable

With just under a year remaining until Election Day, numerous conservatives are already anticipating the inevitable defeat of President Joe Biden. While conventional wisdom often cautions against predicting election outcomes before the conventions (recall the much-hyped yet unrealized Giuliani-Clinton 2008 contest), the unique circumstances of this race arguably make its outcome more predictable, not less so. The seemingly impending rematch between former President Donald Trump and Mr. Biden does not augur well for the latter.

The Biden campaign, attempting to quell fears of electoral demise, points to early polling inaccuracies and disputes the pertinence of polls at this juncture. They reference past elections, like 2012, where late-2011 polls erroneously showed Rick Perry, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney defeating Barack Obama. However, this narrative is flawed. It is based on the assumption that a majority of swing voters are not yet engaged and will make their decisions at the eleventh hour, similar to what occurred in 1980 and 2016.

It's true that voters often initially lack detailed knowledge of candidates, and their positions remain fluid — opinions can shift significantly throughout an election. This was clear in Michael Dukakis's scenario, who initially led George H.W. Bush in most pre-election surveys. However, his lead diminished following a series of attacks on his political record and various gaffes.

The reality, however, is different for this election. The presumptive nominees, Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, are well-known — both have been president. It has been over a hundred years since a former president sought a return to office, and this fact disadvantages any opponent. Convincing voters to gamble on an untested candidate, as opposed to choosing a known quantity with presidential experience, is a formidable challenge. Mr. Trump’s enduring support among Republican voters and in swing states likely stems from this familiarity.

Recent displays and polling show two major issues, the economy and foreign policy, are important to voters ahead of next year’s election — Mr. Biden is underwater on both of them. A Quinnipiac poll places the economy as a top priority for the 2024 electorate. A dismal economy has been the Achilles heel of many incumbents before and could potentially be the killing blow to Mr. Biden. A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll revealed that 49 percent of swing state voters trust Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden on the economy.

And it’s not just Mr. Trump who should give the President cause for alarm. The RealClearPolitics polling aggregate shows Mr. Biden earning just 45 percent when matched against Ron DeSantis, and only 41 percent against Nikki Haley. An NBC News poll showed Mr. Biden trailing a “generic Republican” by a margin of 11 points. Even without the advantage of former incumbency, other Republican candidates still find themselves easily beating the president.

The impact of "Bidenomics" on the average American is palpable and largely negative. Soaring borrowing costs and doubled mortgage payments have escalated housing costs. Under Mr. Biden, inflation has eroded real earnings by 5%, costing the typical American family $7,400 annually. Moreover, rampant increases in living costs have plunged many into debt.

Second, foreign affairs seem to have dominated the second half of Mr. Biden’s term. Normally, this bodes well, as typically a crisis overseas benefits the incumbent. But with wars being waged against both Israel and Ukraine, many voters realize that Mr. Biden's foreign policy, particularly his leniency towards adversaries and his approach to Iran and Russia, has weakened America's global standing and encouraged aggression against our allies. A CBS/YouGov survey revealed that only 44 percent of voters approve of Mr. Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war — with 61 percent of independent voters disapproving.

Voters overwhelmingly trust the Republicans to handle foreign affairs. A recent Gallup survey revealed that 57 percent of Americans have greater faith in the Republican Party to protect the country from international terrorism and foreign threats, their highest margin ever, surpassing their early 2000s War on Terror peak. The Republicans are also trusted with the economy, with 53 percent believing they do a better job of “keeping the country prosperous.” More than half of independent voters back the Republicans on both issues.

The question is not whether Mr. Biden will lose; it is about how badly he will lose. His presidency has been so cheerless that any Republican should be able to defeat him — decisively. Yet this president also faces the collapse of his coalition, with Muslim and younger voters “jumping ship” over his support for Israel. It was a miracle of overwhelming voter turnout that propelled Mr. Biden to the White House against Mr. Trump in 2020 — but by a slim margin. If Republicans play their cards right, and Mr. Biden's base continues to dwindle, his defeat next year is certain.