Is the Republican Primary Over? Far From It, Actually

Hard to Call It Over Before a Single Vote Has Been Cast

Amid the usual turmoil and uncertainty of politics, the outcomes and implications of this primary cycle have been considered abundantly clear. The march towards Donald Trump’s nomination appears almost foreordained within the Republican party. A third Trump candidacy, while disquieting to much of the nation, has seemingly been resigned to inevitability, as the media turns their attention towards the general election.

It is an amazing reminder of how unpredictable the game of politics was, at this point last year the Republicans were in disarray after the 2022 midterms. Despite the prophesied 'red wave' whose tides were expected to knock down the Biden administration, Republicans found themselves put on defense by a series of strong Democratic challengers. Many Trump-endorsed, election-denying candidates were repudiated at the ballot box. Mr. Trump's picks cost the Republicans winnable governorships in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Maryland, and Wisconsin — the coattails of Pennsylvania's Doug Mastriano being so detrimental that they enabled John Fetterman to flip the open Senate seat.

The only place where the 'red wave' materialized was in Florida — where Governor Ron DeSantis coasted to reelection by a twenty-point margin, running against a well-liked and known former incumbent. Mr. DeSantis' success, occurring at the same time as Mr. Trump's failures, emerged as little surprise to anyone. The conservative governor has been the face of the 'resistance' against an overreaching federal government, defying both the Trump and Biden administrations' draconian COVID restrictions.

Mr. DeSantis inserted himself front and center in the 'culture wars,' not bowing to media pressure and showing no hesitation in taking on the teachers' union through the implementation of school choice. He led a charge against ESG investment, took on Disney, and cracked down on crime in Florida. The results of his tenure? A mass exodus of 'Republican refugees' from blue states moving to Florida and a comfortable mandate for his second term.

There was a Reaganesque aura emanating from Mr. DeSantis' victory, and many felt that he was the perfect choice to run against Mr. Biden. The party seemed ready to move on from Mr. Trump; his campaign announcement was met with little enthusiasm, save from his base, with many giving it merely a yawn. He began this year trailing Mr. DeSantis in numerous primary polls, both national and statewide. Unlike in 2016, where a plentiful field allowed Mr. Trump to snatch the nomination with a plurality, it seemed he would take on Mr. DeSantis head-on — and lose.

Fast-forward to our current juncture, and the race has undergone a seismic shift. According to the RealClearPolitics.com aggregate, Mr. Trump dominates the Republican field, boasting a 49.4 percent lead and garnering 61.9 percent of the vote. In stark contrast, Mr. DeSantis trails at a mere 12.5 percent, while Mrs. Nikki Haley lingers close behind with 11.8 percent.

The Trump camp celebrates this resounding endorsement of MAGA and a repudiation of Mr. DeSantis's more traditional conservatism. They have audaciously called for the cancellation of the primary, which they believe is already decided so that the Republican National Committee can openly embrace Mr. Trump and pivot towards his quest to beat Mr. Biden. But, the certitude of Mr. Trump's primary victory and the likelihood of him defeating Biden in the general is highly unlikely — allow me to explain why.

First, the apparent collapse in Mr. DeSantis' support is the result of an uncertain campaign strategy. Had he chosen to go the Chris Christie route, relentlessly bombarding Mr. Trump, he would have achieved the praise of the media establishment and perhaps a Christmas card from Liz Cheney. However, he would also likely achieve a Chris Christie finish, as Mr. Christie hovers at around 2.8 percent in the RealClearPolitics.com aggregate.

The idea that he could 'out-Trump' Mr. Trump was equally ridiculous; consumers rarely choose Diet Coke when regular Coke is on the menu. It is true that Mr. Trump's policies, coupled with a younger, fresher, and more mellow face like that of Mr. DeSantis, would be a formidable contender in the general election. However, the Trump base doesn't see their candidate as having any flaws, so the necessity of a 'Trump without the baggage' is lost on them.

And yet, it is not 'over' for Mr. DeSantis, despite the wishes of the Trump team. His team boasts a strong online social media presence, has gained the support of many Evangelical leaders and voters in Iowa, and received an endorsement from the popular Iowa Governor, Kim Reynolds, as a cherry on top of his very impressive fourth debate performance. Mr. Trump continues to deplete all of his financial and human assets by diminishing, attacking, and attempting to ruin Mr. DeSantis — because the truth is that his internal polling likely shows Mr. DeSantis remains quite a formidable threat, as he indeed is.

Mr. DeSantis has been the underdog before; he was considered 'dead-on-arrival' in his original gubernatorial bid, trailing by similar margins in the primary to Adam Putnam, the Commissioner of Agriculture, before securing a comfortable victory. He was expected to lose to the Democrats' rising star, Andrew Gillum until he managed to win against all odds at the eleventh hour during an unfavorable midterm for Republicans.

As he has just concluded his 99-county tour of Iowa, it's clear that Mr. DeSantis and his team have laid it all on the line in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus. Mr. Trump came up short in Iowa in 2016, despite polling well, losing to the more conservative and religious Ted Cruz in a race that, in typical Mr. Trump fashion, he declared was fraudulent and rigged. If Mr. DeSantis emerges victorious in Iowa, his strategy is a proven success, and it will show his critics to be fools. Conversely, should he come short, it was inevitable and beyond the realm of his influence or control.

Because Mr. DeSantis is not the only strong conservative contender in the race, as he now finds Mrs. Nikki Haley emerging as a persistent threat as they clash for second place. The media paid very little attention to Mrs. Haley, the second candidate to announce her bid, and their 'write-off' of her chances served as a good reminder of how out of touch they are. Three strong debate performances, a hawkish tone on foreign policy, and remarkably strong support among all demographics — including college-educated voters, independent voters, and rank-and-file conservatives — have seen her shoot up in the polls.

Mrs. Haley has offered a return to the 'Republican classic,' reminiscent of the Republican party of ten and twenty years ago. Her advocacy for a Reaganite 'peace-through-strength' foreign policy, a neoconservative case for internationalism, and strong social conservatism — served with a side of supply-side economics — has resonated with many voters across all spectrums. These voters, equally loathing of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, hope for a return to normalcy.

She's emerged strong against all odds, starting out with very little money and receiving few endorsements, which have traditionally been correlated with primary success. The limited backing she has received from the party establishment has been offset by securing the most coveted endorsement of all: that of New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu. The latest CBS/YouGov survey showed that Mr. Trump commands only a plurality of support among New Hampshire Republican primary voters, while Mrs. Haley has shot up to second place at roughly 30 percent.

Mrs. Haley's ascent seems similar to that of Mitt Romney in his original presidential bid in 2008. Mr. Romney entered that race as an unknown figure, polling in the single digits, until a series of strong debate performances solidified him as the 'de facto' option for the 'anyone-but-McCain' voter. Mr. Romney did not win in Iowa, New Hampshire, or even South Carolina, but he still came close to thwarting Mr. McCain. Where Mrs. Haley differs from Mr. Romney is that she has three key factors that have lined up for her.

The first factor would be money. Mrs. Haley's campaign has seen a late injection of cash from Wall Street backers, and she has received the endorsement of heavyweight financial moguls such as Jamie Dimon. Her SuperPAC has received a substantial amount of 'big donor' cash as well as a similar volume of individual contributions. The second factor would be her broad appeal.

New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary is an 'open primary,' where one can vote in any primary regardless of party affiliation. Since the Democrats are not having a presidential primary, every single registered Democrat could, in theory, vote in the Republican primary. What gives any Democrat voter more joy than voting for their preferred candidates? Voting against Donald John Trump.

Her last, and most critical, advantage would be that South Carolina, the 'do-or-die' state for presidential hopefuls ahead of Super Tuesday, lends her considerable 'home-field advantage.' Mrs. Haley, the former Governor of South Carolina is, unsurprisingly, quite popular in South Carolina. If Mrs. Haley wins New Hampshire, which seems likely, and South Carolina, the momentum will rapidly shift towards her, and the dynamics of the race will immediately change.

There is an equally likely chance that Mr. DeSantis will emerge triumphant from the Iowa caucus. However, Iowa is an unreliable indicator in the Republican field. The last Republicans to win Iowa — Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee — did not emerge as their party's presidential nominees. Republican history and conventional wisdom show that to be the party’s nominee, you should be in the top three in New Hampshire and have a chance at winning South Carolina. Mr. Trump and Mrs. Haley meet the criteria for both.

Presidential primaries are often a two-way clash, recall Obama-Clinton, Bush-McCain, or Reagan-Bush — and it is likely that the race could settle into a Trump-Haley battle. Just as surely, it could be a DeSantis-Trump clash — one should not count the Florida governor out just yet. Granted, this is a gross simplification of the primary that has not even begun to account for Mr. Trump's strength and grip on the party. There are too many variables, surprises, scandals, and upsets that occur in politics — all impossible to predict.

But, on a closing note, I would remind readers that Mr. Trump's lead, while formidable, is not absolute. The RealClearPolitics.com aggregate in 2008, at this point in time, showed Hillary Clinton with an insurmountable lead over Barack Obama. Yet, it was Mr. Obama who emerged victorious, because, at the end of the day, polls don't vote; people do. The race for the Republican nomination is very much alive.

And rather exciting, if I do say so myself.

A correction was made on 

Dec. 17, 2023: 

An earlier version of this article accidentally included editor's notes that have since been removed from the text, as they did not belong.