Matt Gaetz Forces McCarthy into a 'no win scenario'
And so it begins.
Matt Gaetz has submitted a motion to vacate the Speaker's position, in a rather frivolous attempt to depose Kevin McCarthy that elicited raucous laughter from the Democrats who witnessed it unfold. Mr. Gaetz is the de-facto leader of the freedom caucus that has consistently thwarted Mr. McCarthy at every juncture, much to the dismay of many Republicans. Mr. McCarthy’s grievous transgression, in Mr. Gaetz’s eyes, is that he, shockingly, has been forced to compromise with the Democrats on too many critical issues — typical modus operandi of a leader who presides over not three or two, but a single branch of the government.
One would assume the Republicans would perceive Mr. McCarthy’s speakership as a series of victories so far — earlier this year he avoided a catastrophic default by negotiating with President Biden, resulting in a compromise that reinstated work requirements for welfare, cut discretionary COVID spending, and streamlined the arduous permit acquisition process for oil companies. This won him no favors with the freedom caucus, who compelled him to recently yield on Ukraine aid, alienating mainstream Republicans and all Democrats.
Enter Mr. Gaetz, who seems to relish such drama. The slimmest cut suits, the coiffed hair, and the wily smile — perfect for all the television cameras that have been shoved in his face as of late. Mr. Gaetz is likely generating headlines to gain name recognition ahead of his rumored ambitions to launch a Florida gubernatorial bid. Yet, his endeavor to oust Mr. McCarthy is nothing short of insane and immediately prompts all out laughter directed at the Republican conference.
It is a scene reminiscent of the Kobayashi Maru from In Star Trek, where cadets at Starfleet academy are forced into a difficult simulation. No matter the choice they make — they die and lose their command. The idea of the simulation, is to remind Starfleet captains of the potential for a “no-win scenario.” Mr. McCarthy has, in a regrettable but foreseeable turn of events, found himself ensnared in this exact scenario.
Mr. McCarthy currently weighs these odds:
(1) Mainstream Republicans support your bid, but Democrats and freedom caucus go against you. You are no longer speaker, and the Republicans will be unable to reach a compromise on a new speaker. Chaos ensues and the cycle likely repeats and the Democrats take the House back in 2024.
(2) Democrats, and your Republican loyalists, back your speakership but demand severe concessions in exchange. You have essentially made a corrupt bargain, and this will lead to a civil war in the GOP. Amidst the infighting, people grow weary of the drama and Democrats take back the House in 2024.
(3) You make even more concessions to the MAGA freedom caucus. This does not work, as you have already given away all of your power. If by some miracle you retain the speakership, the American people get tired of the games and Democrats take back the House in 2024.
The House Republicans have already been engulfed in chaos; spending proposals that include mandatory e-verification and other sought-after victories have been thwarted from within. This, for the most part, is due to the influence of Mr. Gaetz, who views any compromise with the Democrats as ignominious surrender. Mr. Gaetz acts like someone who suffers from cognitive dissonance, as he operates in some deluded realm where Republicans have a sixty-seat majority, the Senate, and the Presidency — instead of the harsh reality. Republicans have a five-seat majority, the Senate is under Democratic dominion, and Joe Biden remains the occupant of the White House.
Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader, has wisely abstained from communicating his party’s intent. Many in his conference keep an enigmatic silence about their voting inclinations. Both Mr. Gaetz and Mr. McCarthy will attempt to solicit their valuable votes. Democrats would likely welcome the ousting of Mr. McCarthy, they will never forgive him for voting against the certification of the 2020 election, his opposition to the January 6 investigation, and the recent impeachment inquiry. A new MAGA branded speaker, if one could be elected, would bolster their electoral prospects in the upcoming election.
At present, Mr. Gaetz can count five Republicans in his camp, with an additional twelve remaining ambivalent in their stance. Mr. McCarthy, with ostensible bravado on Twitter, has brazenly dared Mr. Gaetz to proceed, yet behind the scenes, it appears that the Speaker's allies have prepared themselves for the worst. Mr. McCarthy has noon today, or until tomorrow to bring up the vote — an eventuality shrouded in uncertainty. The circus that is the House GOP is providing quite a captivating spectacle, and I would advise every American to bring out the popcorn.
One final note, and of great interest, is the rare silence of Donald Trump. Normally, Mr. Trump feels compelled to give his opinion on virtually every occurrence within the cosmos — but in this case we have thunderous silence. Mr. McCarthy was forced to bend his knee to Mr. Trump, in 2021, reversed his positions on everything pertaining to January 6 and offered Liz Cheney as a sacrificial lamb. Yet, Mr. Trump is disinclined to support “my Kevin”, as he affectionately calls him. Perhaps it is all another predictable betrayal from Mr. Trump?