Presidential Trump?
Have Four Years of Exile Imparted Lessons on President Trump?
President Donald Trump’s press conference was a sight to behold—and indeed president is the only appropriate way to describe his present status. This is not only an acknowledgment of his previous term but also due to the fact that he has, in effect, assumed the mantle of de facto president ahead of his January inauguration. The most impactful example of this came in the immediate weeks following the election, which saw Mr Trump embark on an overseas visit to France, where he met with French President Emmanuel Macron and other foreign leaders, including the Prince of Wales, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau—whom he later hosted at Mar-a-Lago.
At the beginning of this week, standing tall in that 58-bedroom estate, Mr Trump demonstrated a sharp grasp of policy and a calm demeanor that had often eluded him during his first term. His ability to engage off-the-cuff for over an hour, unaided by a teleprompter, signaled not only his exuberance but also a clear-cut contrast with the present-day commander-in-chief. Mr Trump's remarks opened with a $100 billion pledge from Japan's SoftBank, which he humorously tried to negotiate up to $200 billion with SoftBank’s CEO, much to the amusement of those present. Reiterating his positions on border security, trade policy, and his cabinet appointees, Mr Trump communicated an intent to deliver on his promises with an atypical gravitas.
Mr Trump came across as a leader more attuned to the responsibilities of high office. A marked contrast from the insouciant demeanor, vacuous policy, and erratic behavior with the media that defined his first term. Exile appears to have lent him wisdom, providing four years for reflection on his failings while also allowing him to rebuild the Republican Party. Typically, departing presidents—whether evicted by the will of the electorate or term limits—emerge as elder statesmen, pen a memoir, or retreat from center stage after defeat. Yet, Mr Trump made it abundantly clear, on the day he lost, that his exodus into the sunset was far from imminent.
Mr Trump had shown every intent of bearing the Republican standard one last time in the next presidential election. By doing so, he has broken precedent by establishing himself as something unprecedented in the American Republic—a leader of the opposition, as in the Westminster system. Although America’s non-parliamentary structure renders such a role non-existent, Mr Trump, through sheer willpower as a private citizen, effectively created it. From his role as a private citizen, he regularly held the Biden administration to account, posting criticisms and counter-policies on Truth Social—an effective digital substitute for the opposition bench.
Republican politicians sought Mr Trump's blessing in their respective campaigns, often emphasizing how they would work with him in a second term. Remarkably, he even whipped votes in Congress like a British party leader, most notably when he helped kill the Biden administration’s immigration bill. His tenure as kingmaker since 2021 has been comparable to losing an election yet staying on as party leader, a practice seen infrequently in the United Kingdom. An illustrative example is Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock, who opted to remain in leadership after his party’s crushing defeat to Margaret Thatcher’s Tories in 1987.
Much like Mr Trump, Lord Kinnock faced a leadership challenge ahead of the next election in 1992, ultimately defeating Tony Benn by a margin of 80pct to 20pct—similar to how Mr Trump prevailed in the Republican primary, defeating Nikki Haley 76pct to 19pct. However, Lord Kinnock offers only a limited parallel; he was an uninspiring leader offering little more than the failed politics of envy, resulting in another defeat to the Tories in 1992. In contrast, Mr Trump persevered through negative press, assassination attempts, civil and criminal cases, and the like, rallying not just his party but also the electorate behind him. Casting himself as a decisive leader with “common sense” policies, he found resonance with the American public.
Ahead of his second term, Mr Trump appears amicable and eager to mend fences with past adversaries. He has reportedly held productive conversations with figures such as Tim Cook, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jeff Bezos, the latter slated to meet the president today at Mar-a-Lago. Mr Trump joked, “In this term, everybody wants to be my friend. I don’t know. My personality changed or something.”
In all seriousness, Mr Trump understands why perceptions have shifted. Unlike his 2016 victory—a fluke of the Electoral College—this time, his track record and decisive electoral mandate have cemented his agenda as not merely his ambition but the nation’s expectation. Winning the popular vote, all the swing states, and securing a trifecta has legitimized his presidency in ways his chaotic first term never could. The relative quiet from his detractors attests to this transformation.
Democrats, who emerged from their 2016 defeat rallied and determined to resist Mr Trump, now appear resigned and fragmented, their opposition crushed. Infighting over the blame for their loss has ensued, and it seems many have realized that obstructing his now-popular agenda could prove more disastrous than it did previously. The Democrats risk being relegated to more than a decade in opposition unless circumstances dramatically change, as they often do in politics.
For now, voters have been afforded the opportunity to view Mr Trump’s policies without the cacophony of perpetual conflict. As a result, he enjoys a positive net favorability rating for the first time since announcing his campaign in 2015. While his trademark bravado remains intact, alongside the occasional foolish remark or frivolous lawsuit—such as the one against Ann Seltzer and The Des Moines Register over a poll he disliked—Mr Trump’s experience, combined with a public weary of his predecessors’ and the Democratic party’s mistakes, has lent him an aura of legitimacy and confidence.
The honeymoon will eventually end, as all do, and old battles will inevitably resume. But for now, Mr Trump's return has left voters feeling positive, hopeful, and committed. Only time will tell if the course will change.