The MAGA Permanent Revolution
The Revenge of the Populists
The Republican party has been altered in a way that one may think is permanent. For most of our lives, the party has been defined by the influence of Ronald Reagan - social conservatism, “peace through strength,” a neoconservative foreign policy, and a sunny optimism grounded in the belief that America was, is, and forever shall be exceptional. Then, in 2015, a television host descended a golden escalator in a golden tower with his golden hair shining - and changed the course of the party and the country.
This newly announced presidential campaign, which appeared to be, and initially may have been, a stunt for ratings, culminated in a drastic change in course for the Republican party, the most remarkable upset in American presidential politics and history made before our eyes, an electoral realignment, and, really, a new political system altogether.
Previously, the essence of electoral success and the whole point of politics was based on the belief that it was a game of addition; success was the ability to expand the tent. One would think, based on this, we would hear Mr. Trump call for consolidation and camaraderie, extending the olive branch to Haley supporters and asserting that his MAGA movement transcends individual differences, instead uniting all Republicans and Americans in a shared vision of national greatness. Mr. Trump went down a different road.
Mr. Trump confidently boasted, “And [the Media] say, always trying to demean, well, MAGA really represents 48 percent of the Republican Party. No. It represents 96 percent and maybe a hundred percent. We are getting rid of the Romneys of the world. We want to get Romneys and those out.” The significance of this quote cannot be understated. The renomination of Mr. Trump signifies the transformation of the Republican Party, whether for one cycle or enduring for many more, and the realignment away from Reaganism, neoconservative foreign policy, and instead the promotion of unyielding loyalty to Trump, the 'America-first' agenda, and being branded as “MAGA.' Though, I would argue that 'MAGA' is less of a cohesive ideology and more of a priority of the leadership of one charismatic figure rather than a collective ideology. Candidates aren’t so much ‘MAGA’ based on policy, as they are branded with the coveted Trump endorsement. It is possible that regardless of 2024’s outcome, a classical conservative candidate could quickly snatch the nomination in 2028.
Though drawn from the strategy of the Ottoman Empire, Mr. Trump and his surrogates have embraced a “convert or die” to dealing with “non-believers.” Paul Ryan is gone. Liz Cheney is gone. Jeff Sessions is gone. Jeff Flake is gone. Bob Corker is gone. Mitt Romney is leaving. The idea that Mr. Trump is an ‘insurgent against the establishment’ is laughable. This is not 2016. He effectively runs the Republican National Committee through a proxy and has received the endorsement of Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and Speaker Mike Johnson. He has effectively won the nomination of his party in an unprecedented landslide.
So many outside observers ponder whether Mr. Trump’s ‘purge’ will have any consequences this fall. There is overwhelming empirical evidence that significant numbers of suburban voters who once voted for Romney and McCain tipped Mr. Biden over the edge in the 2020 race. Given how tight this race is expected to be, can Mr. Trump afford to disregard these voters?
The answer is yes. At least for this election.
Under Mr. Trump's tenure, the Republican party has become incredibly unwelcome for the traditional conservatives of yesteryear, and yet his prospects of winning the presidency have never been higher. According to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Mr. Trump has led or been tied in 19 out of the last 20 polls, a stark change from 2020, when he didn't win a single national poll.
He is doing better in every poll now than in the election he won eight years ago.
The biggest change? Hispanic and African-American voters, groups that traditionally do not fall under the Republican umbrella. Mr. Trump leads with Hispanic voters by 6 points, a group he lost by 33 in 2020. Mr. Trump has been averaging between fifteen and thirty percent of the Black vote, which would be the highest for a Republican since Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. This is easily explained - these blue-collar voting blocks have been hit the hardest by inflation, feel the brunt of illegal immigration, and view Mr. Biden, rightfully, as weak, ineffective, and not fit to serve as president - while viewing Mr. Trump's policies, particularly on the border and crime, with favorability. Mr. Trump's chants to 'build the wall,' 'deport them all,' and shoot migrants' legs, and build an alligator moat have reassured these voters, not scare them, compared to Mr. Biden's insistence that his hands are tied.
Mr. Trump's losses with the White professional class, which resulted in Democratic victories in 2018, 2020, and 2022, have been offset by this generational realignment. His working-class base, now more diverse, outnumbers these voters - and, if believed, will carry him back to the White House comfortably.
The most redefining aspect of ‘MAGA’s influence on our politics, in my opinion, was that despite Mr. Biden being decried as the 'worst president ever' and the common belief that four more years of his incumbency would spell the end of the country, the party seemed less interested in immediate electoral success. Opting for Mr. Trump rather than Mrs. Haley, who polled consistently over Biden by double digits, it's now become clear to me that this election is about protecting the 'MAGA' movement’s legitimacy within the party than anything else.
Electoral losses do not necessarily spell the end in the Trumpian playbook; his narrative that the elections are “rigged,” “stolen,” and that he “won it by a lot” is equally about his fragile ego and blatant disregard for norms also immunizes himself from any criticism. The Republican primary voters did not believe Mr. Trump stood any risk of losing to Mr. Biden because most of them remained adamant that Mr. Trump bested him four years prior and that Mr. Biden’s victory was illegitimate. Though it is interesting to see what new excuse will present itself should Mr. Trump fail to triumph in November.
But for the populists, this election is less about winning than 'sending the message.' We are witnessing a Trotsky-esque permanent revolution designed to reconfigure the GOP's ideology completely. Most in 'MAGA' would rather lose the election than see the party return to the Bush-Cheney conservatism of twenty years ago. Being out of power is far more convenient and opportunistic for populists, as they get to rage against the perceived 'establishment' and believe themselves martyrs against the system. Destruction of the shadowy "deep state" and eradication of the infidels, any Republicans not aligned with Mr. Trump’s visions, is of utmost importance, superseding all else. We have seen proof of this.
In 2012, during Barack Obama’s horrific economy, heavy unemployment, and capitulation on the world stage, many believed it inevitable that Republicans would unify him and oust him from the presidency he had so easily won four years earlier. Republicans nominated Mitt Romney, a fiscal conservative Christian who was governor of the nation’s bluest state, highlighting his bipartisan appeal. And though he won with overwhelming numbers among independent voters, college-educated voters, and suburbs - it wasn’t enough to make up for dismal rural turnout compared to Mr. Trump four years later because many of the populists in the ‘MAGA’ movement hate Mr. Romney, and everything he exemplifies.
Much of the Trumpian initial base is made up of former Union Democrats, who may have voted for Reagan once or twice but otherwise voted for Clinton, Gore, and Kerry. Economically, they are left-of-center, though they’ll never admit it. They favor tariffs, protectionism, and anti-trust, among other atypical Republican positions. Some never voted until Mr. Trump persuaded them. Though their electoral force and anger at the ‘swamp’ was massed during the Obama presidency, these populists didn’t come out for Mr. Romney because, in their view, four more years of Mr. Obama wasn’t as alarming to them as it was to other Republicans.
After all, in their mind, the ‘uni-party’ of the left and ‘establishment’ Republicans like Mr. Romney are the same. Many live in denial that their resistance is over, considering how they have become the establishment themselves within the GOP. As Obi-Wan-Kenobi tells the fallen Anakin Skywalker towards the end of Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith, “You have become the very thing you swore to destroy.”
And so, while it may be enough to carry Mr. Trump to victory in November, the future of the Republican party at large remains uncertain. We have already seen this party's future down the ballot. It doesn’t exactly bode well.
The 2022 midterms, on paper, seemed tailor-made for a Red wave. Mr. Biden's progressive leftism had proved unpopular, and voters were itching to shackle it. But rather than nominating traditionally conservative candidates - the Republicans instead fielded celebrities such as Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, and Kari Lake. Newcomers focused less on policy but instead on declaring their loyalty to Mr. Trump, the 'MAGA' agenda, and focused their campaigns more on this persona. This new Republican Party was the most Trumpian, where adherence to 'MAGA' and Mr. Trump himself took priority over retail politics and policy.
The result was that Democrats vastly overperformed, with John Fetterman defeating Mehmet Oz and gaining the seat. A series of ‘MAGA’ candidates underperformed in House races, resulting in a razor-thin House majority for the Republicans. In Georgia, the traditionally conservative Brian Kemp easily trounced Stacey Abrams in the gubernatorial race, while the populist and 'MAGA' approved Herschel Walker fell to defeat. Ultimately, this departure from ideology and instead to populism and this 'permanent revolution' is costly at the ballot box - with swing voters opting against it at every turn.
Mr. Trump’s return does not necessarily mean that the public has embraced populism or that most conservatives have. As of publication, roughly 2,370,571 votes have been cast thus far in the Republican primary - meaning only 6 percent of the nation’s 35 million registered Republicans and countless independents have participated. While ‘MAGA’ and populism’s strength in the primaries remain formidable, the challenges in the general election for other candidates remain formidable. There is clear evidence, mainly based on his 2016 victory and subsequent results, that while non-populists may be willing to vote for Mr. Trump himself, they are not so much willing to vote for ‘MAGA’ Trumpism down the ballot.
Whatever happens, as this election could go either way this November, the Republicans cannot continue down this path forever. Otherwise, once Mr. Trump's influence is gone from the party—be it by his inevitable death or retirement from politics—the party will meet the same fate as the permanent revolutionaries of Soviet Russia, betraying and turning on each other.