This article was written, though not published, before the announcement of the conviction of former President Donald Trump on 34 felony charges, an unprecedented action and possible electoral game-changer. Thus, this ruling has not been factored into this analysis.
Usually, in American politics, historical trends, Joe Biden's lackluster approval ratings, weak economic performance, foreign policy crises, and utter lack of charisma would have doomed him to a Carter-esque defeat, with the Union painted bright red from coast to coast. But these are unusual times. Donald Trump, Mr. Biden's Republican challenger (as if you didn't know), is both a force of unparalleled electoral strength, with a base cultivated out of his sheer will, and the most off-putting, divisive, and polarizing candidate many of us have, or ever will, see in our lifetimes. And due to the hyper-partisan nature of our present politics, gone are the days of elastic electoral maps and landslides, at least for the foreseeable future. Only fifteen of the fifty states in the Union have changed their voting habits in the last 20 years. For November's election between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, it seemed a foregone conclusion that the six states Mr. Biden won by less than 3 percent—Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada—would be the singular focus.
This remains true, although some of these states have shifted dramatically away from Mr. Biden, who now finds himself not only on defense but also slipping in additional states won by Hillary Clinton and himself prior, which were not considered in play. When adjusted for margin of error and historical polling misses, current polling aggregates suggest that Mr. Biden, rather than expanding as a traditional incumbent does, will instead be placed on the defense—and on less than favorable terms. Mr. Trump starts at 268 electoral votes, two shy of the presidency, while Mr. Biden appears to have a 'floor' of 196—with 74 electoral votes, the states within the margin of error, seemingly up for grabs.
It's worth scrutinizing these battleground states and determining how they were won before and how they can be won again. While national popular vote trends, individual polls, and the electoral college advantage favor Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden is not necessarily dead on arrival—at least, not quite yet. According to the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, his approval rating sits at 37.6 percent, with a disapproval gap of 18.7 points, falling further each day. No president in recent times has been re-elected without, at minimum, a 45 percent approval rating around June (where Barack Obama hovered in 2012).
Georgia
Georgia was a last-minute and surprising battleground in 2020; Mr. Biden narrowly flipped Georgia blue for the first time since Bill Clinton in 1992, besting Trump by 0.23 percent, or 11,779 votes. Georgia epitomizes the Republican Party’s present issues: the collapse of support among college-educated whites (think McCain-Romney-Clinton-Biden voters), the college-educated in general, waning support in exurbs, and the rapid diversification of the suburbs. The Atlanta metropolitan area, specifically its suburbs, has changed significantly. So much so that Newt Gingrich’s former district, if loosely drawn to its former borders, would have voted for Mr. Biden—unthinkable to those who recall Mr. Gingrich’s fiery brand of unapologetic conservatism.
Georgia’s suburbs have changed; the former caricature of silver-haired white suburban men in polo shirts gathered on country club golf courses sipping Arnold Palmers is more of an antiquated image than a present reality. There has been a significant influx of African Americans and Asians, typically Democratic voting blocs, migrating to the suburbs. The college-educated whites in these counties have followed the national shift from Bush-McCain-Romney to Mr. Biden. Hillary Clinton certainly raised some eyebrows by flipping Cobb, Henry, and Gwinnett counties in 2016, even though they split their vote for Republican Johnny Isakson in his concurrent Senate reelection bid. This same triumvirate of counties and their further shift leftward, coupled with a dramatic turnout in the Atlanta metro, led to Mr. Trump's narrow defeat in the Peach State in 2020.
However, Mr. Biden squeezed every ounce of juice out of Atlanta and its immediate suburbs in 2020, and Georgia remains a red-leaning state without the Trump factor. It's more competitive than most, but Georgia technically split its vote between Mr. Biden and incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue in 2020. Mr. Perdue fell short of victory against challenger and successor Jon Ossoff due to Georgia’s runoff law requiring a candidate to achieve more than fifty percent. Perdue was 0.27 percent away from safety, finishing with 49.73 percent to Ossoff's 47.95—a margin of 88,098 votes. Mr. Ossoff eventually bested Mr. Perdue in January's runoff (50–49). Still, that loss can be attributed to Mr. Trump and Mr. Perdue's claims of election fraud, which depressed rural turnout from the Republican base. Yet Perdue noticeably overperformed among Georgia's suburban voters, and two years later, Governor Brian Kemp and every other statewide incumbent rode to victory by comfortable margins of 6–8 percent.
So, Georgia was, in all likelihood, the state expected to flip back to Mr. Trump in a rematch, even if by a closer margin. A more traditional Republican, like Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley, would trounce in the state, it's true, but Mr. Trump, for all his flaws, only lost Georgia by 11,000 votes and, based on the RealClearPolitics average, leads Mr. Biden 48 to 43 on aggregate. Mr. Trump's path to flipping back Georgia is quite easy, particularly given the latest shift toward him among African American voters, whose support Mr. Biden cannot afford to lose. Mr. Trump must narrow the margins by making gains with college-educated voters in Fulton, Cobb, and Gwinnett, hoping that Atlanta's margins will narrow, leading to a comfortable win for himself statewide. It is highly unlikely, if not borderline improbable, that Mr. Biden will hold onto this state; if I were Mr. Biden's campaign manager, I would write this one off.
Arizona
The idea of Arizona ever voting Democratic in a presidential race is foreign to most alive today; Arizona voted Republican in every election from 1952 to 1992. The only Democrats to win Arizona since 1948—Bill Clinton in 1996 and Joe Biden in 2020—did so with less than fifty percent of the vote. A significant midwestern influx from Wisconsin, Minnesota, and other states in the 1950s led to rapidly growing suburbs in Phoenix and Tucson. The counties of Maricopa (home of Phoenix) and Pima (home of Tucson) account for 80 percent of the state's vote; suburbs dominate Arizona. And the most harmful consequence of the Trump era for the Republicans has been a noticeable suburban shift toward the Democrats. In Arizona, this was symbolized by the state electing Kyrsten Sinema, the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988, and the victory of both Mr. Biden and Mark Kelly on the same ballot in 2020.
Mr. Biden's victory in Arizona, by some 10,000 votes, can be attributed to significant support from Republican suburban voters who were alienated by Mr. Trump's repeated attacks on the late and popular Senator John McCain; his specific remarks on Mr. McCain's military service and character did not go over with voters who, believe it or not, liked their Senator. Mormon voters, of which there is a sizable portion in Arizona, also revolted against Mr. Trump. A recent NPR article by Xinema Bustillo followed a group of suburban Mormon women, part of Maricopa County's LDS community, who donned "Republicans for Biden" signs and voted against Mr. Trump based on one issue: civility. These voters are a persistent problem for Mr. Trump; they are uber-conservative and yet morally repulsed by his behavior.
Cindy McCain, the widow of Mr. McCain, made an impassioned endorsement of Mr. Biden, making it more acceptable for many Republicans to cast a blue ballot. These voters' policies haven't necessarily changed, and Mr. Biden's remarkable unpopularity in Arizona is a testament to this. However, their votes were motivated by their opposition to Mr. Trump rather than their support for Mr. Biden. It didn't hurt to have Mark Kelly's solid and well-funded centrist Senate campaign on the same ballot, running against an unpopular incumbent and Trump ally, Senator Martha McSally. Mr. Biden got around 10 percent of Republican votes, enough to tip the scales in his favor.
So, how do the Republicans win them back?
It's a very precarious position for Mr. Trump; these voters likely agree with him on 80 to 90 percent of policy—they hate him personally. On the other hand, Mr. Biden is proving to be so unpopular and detested that these "double haters," as they've been dubbed, seem poised to decide the election. The Senate race between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake is expected to be favorable for the Democrats, as was Mark Kelly's, with a recent poll showing Mr. Gallego leading Mrs. Lake by ten points. Mrs. Lake already floundered in her gubernatorial bid in 2022, courtesy of a collapse among Republican suburban voters. Yet, she did improve on Republican margins with Hispanic voters noticeably. With Mr. Trump set to tie, if not outright win, the Hispanic vote nationally, the shift in his favorable polling in Nevada and Arizona can likely be attributed to an improvement with this key voting bloc.
In the RealClearPolitics average, Mr. Biden gets 43.8 percent to Mr. Trump's 47.8 percent—a healthy lead of 4. This is unsurprising; consistently, illegal immigration ranks as the top priority in Arizona, a border state that often experiences direct impacts from illegal immigration, particularly regarding public safety and strain on local resources such as healthcare. Mr. Trump's unapologetically strong stance against illegal immigration resonates with Republican voters and independents, who comprise 34% and 30% of Arizona's registered voters, respectively, and prioritize this issue. Moreover, Mr. Trump's appeal among Hispanic voters, due to their support for his policies regarding immigration and the economy, gives him room to grow. Mr. Biden carried 63% of Hispanic voters in 2020, yet Katie Hobbs, despite improving on Mr. Biden's margin of victory in her 2022 gubernatorial win, only carried 51% of Hispanic voters. This shift among Hispanic voters and Mr. Trump's ability to regain ground with college-educated voters and suburbanites position him firmly to win Arizona. Polls show a change that, if sustained, will give him the Grand Canyon State's 11 electoral votes.
Nevada
Nevada was an anomaly in 2020, one of seven states where Mr. Trump improved on his 2016 margin. Mr. Trump narrowly lost Nevada to Mr. Biden, who carried the state 50-47, a slimmer margin than Hillary Clinton’s victory in 2016. Yet Nevada has trended rightward since then; Republicans won 51-47 percent of the House of Representatives popular vote in the state in 2022, and the incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak was defeated by Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo 48-47, making it the only Republican flip of the 2022 gubernatorial races. Republicans also had success flipping the Lieutenant Governor's office and the office of the State Controller. The RealClearPolitics aggregate shows Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden 48 to 42, a 5-point spread, and potentially making him the first Republican to carry the Silver State's 6 electoral votes since George W. Bush bested John Kerry in 2004.
Like George W. Bush, Mr. Trump appears poised to win the Hispanic vote nationally; Nevada remains no exception. According to a recent Emerson poll, 44 percent of Hispanic voters support Mr. Trump, while 41 percent support Mr. Biden. Immigration, a top issue for Nevada voters, and the economy, where inflation hurts Nevada's predominantly working-class population, have led to Mr. Trump gaining with those concerned about economic stability. It also doesn't help that Nevada's demographics are evolving, with the Hispanic and younger populations growing; younger voters are also shifting towards Mr. Trump, leading to a high probability that Mr. Trump can build a coalition of support in Nevada and finally win the state.
The demographics in this state have been a ticking time bomb for the Democrats, and the combination of that, along with key voter priorities like immigration, the economy, and the polls, all of which portray a bleak picture for Mr. Biden, makes it pretty likely that Mr. Trump will emerge victorious in Nevada come November.
Wisconsin
Mr. Trump carried Wisconsin in 2016, stunning the nation by besting Hillary Clinton 47-46, with a margin of 22,748 votes separating the two. Amazingly, Mr. Trump managed to win Wisconsin and the other Rust Belt states with a lower vote share than George W. Bush in those three states in 2004. Mitt Romney, who lost Wisconsin to Barack Obama in 2012, received more raw votes than Mr. Trump, yet did not prevail. There is no denying that Mr. Trump won this state election or the 2016 election at large, but his victory was more of a ‘fluke,’ given that strong third-party support enabled his defeat of Mrs. Clinton.
Unlike the other states, Wisconsin is not that diverse, and interestingly enough, this presents a more daunting challenge for Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump's defeat of Mrs. Clinton was attributed to a wave of support from the white working class in rural areas that had previously supported Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore, and Bill Clinton. Mr. Trump held his own with this group in 2020. Still, he experienced a slight drop-off in the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) comprising the Milwaukee suburbs due to Mr. Biden’s strong support from college-educated whites. In Ozaukee County, Mr. Biden garnered 43 percent of the vote, narrowing Mr. Trump's lead to 12 points, down from his 19-point lead in 2016. Turnout in Milwaukee, where Mr. Biden was able to mobilize black voters, tipped him over, allowing him to carry Wisconsin by a margin of 0.6 percent, roughly 20,500 votes.
Democrats have achieved remarkable successes in Wisconsin as of late; they won every statewide contest in 2018, and in 2022, against all odds, incumbent Governor Tony Evers bested his Republican challenger by a margin of 3.4, the result of a strong performance in the WOW counties that lined up in sync with Mr. Biden's 2020 margins. Republican Senator Ron Johnson, who was also on the ballot in 2022, consistently led polls yet ended up winning reelection by a margin of 50-49, or 26,718 votes, separating him from Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes, who ended up giving Mr. Johnson the closest race of his career, despite the favorable environment.
To make matters worse for the Republicans, back in 2023, the Democrats, in a nationalized state Supreme Court election, defeated the Republicans by a margin of 55-44 in an election that was considered a referendum on the legality of abortion. This victory flipped Wisconsin's Supreme Court from a conservative to a liberal majority. The alarm bells specifically sounded in Ozaukee County, where Kelly, the Republican, won by only five; Mitt Romney carried this county by 30 points in 2012, Mr. Trump by 19 in 2016, and 12 in 2020. Abortion seems to be the Achilles heel for the Republicans, particularly among these suburban voters, and that, combined with their relative disdain for Mr. Trump’s moral character and his election denialism, has hurt both his prospects and that of his party in this state.
Mr. Trump does have a plausible path to winning Wisconsin, yet Mr. Biden has strengths in the state that give him an equally probable chance. Mr. Trump's path involves marginally improving among black voters in urban areas and holding his support with his base of white working-class voters without a college degree, who overwhelmingly favor him over Mr. Biden. This group delivered the state to him in 2016, and they have not faltered in their support for him in 2024. Mr. Trump currently boasts a 63-34 advantage over Mr. Biden in this constituency. The economy, which remains the top issue for voters, is Mr. Trump's strongest issue; voters trust him 57 percent to Mr. Biden's 24 percent in handling economic affairs.
However, Mr. Trump has virtually tied Mr. Biden in every poll in this state. The RealClearPolitics average shows him in a dead heat with Mr. Biden. This can be attributed to, as aforementioned, Biden’s strong support among college-educated Whites, who favor Biden by a margin of 57-44. Mr. Biden is trusted on both ethical issues and upholding democratic values.
Mr. Trump, to carry the state, needs to turn out his base and cannot afford to lose any more ground in the suburbs. A Trump victory would likely improve his margins in the WOW counties in 2020 but fall just short of his 2016 peak. However, given history, Wisconsin's polling could be pretty erroneous, and Mr. Trump may have a comfortable lead in the state. It is worth noting that RealClearPolitics had Mr. Biden up by 6.7 percent in the state in 2020. Given the state's final margin, it is pretty evident that polls have underestimated Mr. Trump in this state before and could do so again.
Minnesota
Minnesota, the only state not to vote for a Republican in the last fifty years, looks quite competitive this November, given that recent polls indicate that Mr. Trump is very much in play for the state. Republicans fantasized about flipping this state in 2020 after Mr. Trump lost it to Hillary Clinton by a narrow margin of 44–46 percent, with Mrs. Clinton winning by 44,600 votes. Though Republicans should contain their excitement, Hillary's weak performance in Minnesota resulted from third-party voting; Minnesota still voted 2 points to the nation's left in that election. In 2020, after much effort, Mr. Biden bested Mr. Trump 52-45 percent.
However, Minnesota might be competitive in this cycle; polling repeatedly shows the state within the margin of error. The recent MinnPost/Embold Research poll shows Mr. Biden narrowly leading Mr. Trump 45 to 42, which falls within the poll's 2.6 percent margin of error. This is not surprising; Minnesota is a very white and rural state, and Mr. Trump's support for rural and working-class white voters has always been a source of strength for his electoral prospects. At the same time, Mr. Biden still holds a strong advantage among college-educated whites and urban voters. Yet this base, centered in the Twin Cities, will likely not turn out with the same ferocity it did in 2020.
As in almost every battleground state, the economy and immigration are the top concerns for Minnesota's voters, and they trust Mr. Trump more than Mr. Biden on both issues. Minnesota has a long history of voting for Democrats; the last time it voted Republican was in 1972 for Richard Nixon in his 49-state landslide. Minnesota has looked competitive in polling repeatedly throughout recent history, only to deliver its electoral votes comfortably for the Democrats. The local Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party is one of the best-run state chapters and has an abundant war chest and well-organized ground game. The structural advantages in this state all favor Mr. Biden, yet Mr. Trump could make an aggressive play for this state if he is favored on the top voter concerns. Don’t necessarily focus, yet keep a glance on the land of 10,000 lakes on election night.
Pennsylvania
The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, my home, has become an electoral kingmaker lately. Though Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the Keystone State since George H.W. Bush in 1988, Pennsylvania has been extremely competitive in presidential races and has been an incredibly elastic down-ballot. I would argue that we are the perfect rendition of the country at large. Philadelphia is a large and densely packed urban metropolis; sprawling suburbs stretch out in the immediate metropolitan area until you push into the state's center, where small-town, conservative farm lifestyles dominate. In the west, we have the cities of Pittsburgh and Erie and the working-class counties of Washington, Greene, and Fayette, former industrial heartlands and once longtime Democratic strongholds that have recently flipped towards Mr. Trump and his brand of MAGA conservatism.
James Carville once, from a position of liberal sanctimony, dismissed my home state as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on one end and Kentucky in between, adding that “Between Paoli and Penn Hills, Pennsylvania is Alabama without the blacks.” It’s a harsh and inaccurate characterization. Pennsylvania has an impeccable diversity of people. We have a vast swath of urbanites in our cities, white-collar professionals laid outside the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, and rural, blue-collar voters sprinkled elsewhere and everywhere.
In 2012, Barack Obama carried Pennsylvania 51-46, which somewhat mirrored the national popular vote difference of Mr. Obama's 51 percent to Mr. Romney's 47 percent. Mr. Romney, who performed strongly in the Philadelphia suburbs, winning Chester County, narrowing Montgomery County below 10, and narrowly losing Bucks, was unable to run up serious margins among working-class voters, such as those in Eerie, Luzerne, and Northampton counties, the three of which voted for Mr. Obama. Against all odds, in 2016, Donald Trump bested Hillary Clinton by 0.72 percent, 44,292 votes, in Pennsylvania, carrying the state by a margin of 0.72 percent. Mr. Trump's victory came from his strong appeal to working-class whites, who had previously voted Democratic. Mr. Trump flipped Luzerne County, shifting it by a margin of 25 percent, while also picking up the similarly working-class counties of Eerie and Northampton, which had voted against the Republicans four years before. However, alarm bells rang, even amid such a victory.
Chester County, which, as mentioned, had voted for Mr. Romney, flipped to Mrs. Clinton. This would seem insignificant, but Chester is a historically Republican county; it is the most educated county in the state, with over 55 percent of residents holding a bachelor's degree, wealthy, and boasting an average household income of $147,443, making it the richest county in the state and 31st in the country. In the last 35 presidential elections in 1880, Chester County voted for the Democrats just five times. And yet, as Mrs. Clinton bested Mr. Trump by 9 points, incumbent Senator Pat Toomey, who was running for reelection on the same ballot in 2016, performed twelve points better than Mr. Trump, winning by 3.
Could it have just been that these suburban voters do not like Mr. Trump? That is certainly the driving factor, but such disdain has also extended to Mr. Trump’s party. Mr. Toomey remains the last Republican to carry Chester statewide. As the county continues to grow, it and the rest of the affluent Philadelphia Main Line have turned away from the Republicans. It’s among these college-educated Whites who dominate these counties that Mr. Trump performs weakest with, compared to his traditional Republican counterparts, and it is this same demographic that lost him the state in 2020 and makes Pennsylvania a hard ‘get’ for him in 2024.
Mr. Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a margin of 50-48, with some 80,000 votes separating him and Mr. Trump. Mr. Biden's win was driven by a suburban revolt; he improved on Hillary's margin in the Philadelphia suburban counties of Bucks by 3.60 percent, Delaware by 4.38 percent, Montgomery by 4.80 percent, and in the formerly Romney county of Chester, Mr. Biden trounced Mr. Trump by a margin of 17 points. This suburban slip, coupled with Mr. Biden flipping Northampton and Eerie, allowed Mr. Biden to prevail in the state and thus win the presidency.
It’s a very interesting predicament; these suburban voters are not necessarily progressive nor even that liberal. Most of them, in all likelihood, would identify as ‘fiscally conservative;’ they are generally indifferent to social issues and more conservative than one would expect on such matters. They just loathe Donald Trump. And Pennsylvania’s Republican suburbanites have not warmed up to Donald Trump recently; in the 2024 primary, even after she had dropped out, challenger Nikki Haley received 24 percent in Chester, 22 percent in Delaware, 18 percent in Bucks, and 24 percent in Montgomery, which included my primary vote as well.
Mr. Trump desires the Keystone State, which, per the RealClearPolitics average, shows him competitive and within the margin of error; Mr. Trump boasts a 47.8 percent lead against Mr. Biden's 45.5 percent. Mr. Trump must somehow find a way to cure his persistent problem with suburban voters. The likeliest outcome, if he should carry the state, is that his working-class and rural turnout is maximized, and he flips Erie and Northampton, and perhaps even Bucks, where the southern, more working-class parts of towns such as Levittown and Langhorne are trending rightward. Holding Mr. Biden down in the Philadelphia suburbs is crucial and the most daunting challenge. Mr. Trump's best option is that they stay home; they are unpersuadable regarding him, though they would be willing to consider any other Republican. Suppose he could lose Chester by 12 or even 9. In that case, he likely wins the state, but this is a wishful strategy, considering that these suburban voters have the highest propensity, while Mr. Trump's coalition does not boast such a consistent turnout.
It will certainly come down to Pennsylvania; expect this to be among this cycle's narrowest, hardest-fought, and most consequential states. Not to mention that Pennsylvania prefers to vote in step with its other Rust Belt compatriots, Wisconsin and Michigan (all three combined boast 44 electoral votes). I am omitting an analysis of Michigan, another state in which Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are locked in a dead heat because the states are so similar in their voting habits and demographics. I can confidently predict that if Pennsylvania goes red, so goes Michigan.
Virginia
Mr. Biden should be alarmed.
If you saw Virginia included on a list of battleground states and assumed you had been whisked back to 2015, you are not alone in such thinking. I’ll leave it to your imagination to picture my surprise at the recent Roanoke College poll, one of the most accurate, that shows Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump deadlocked 42-42 in the Dominion state. And, even though Mr. Biden bested Mr. Trump here 54-43, I have my reasons to believe the validity of this poll and the accuracy of the state’s competitive nature.
The Commonwealth of Virginia was once one of the most reliably Republican states in the country. However, this changed in 2008 when demographics, specifically an influx of educated transplants in Northern Virginia, changed the state from ruby red to blue, though it's more competitive than most. Even though Mr. Obama won Virginia both times, it voted more Republican than the nation in 2008. Mr. Romney's defeat in Virginia, by a 47-51 margin, was in sync with his national margin of 47-51. Mr. Trump narrowly lost Virginia in 2016, 49-44, but was resoundingly trounced in 2020; this is because his outsider brand of populism that besmirched the federal government and the D.C. political establishment did not necessarily play well with the federal government employees and D.C. political establishment that reside all over the state.
But it is a mistake to believe that just because of Virginia’s hatred for Donald Trump, which, in my opinion, is the strongest here of any of the swing states, it is a solid blue state unattainable for the Republicans. It has moved from a red state to a swing state, and in the age of Mr. Trump, a blue-leaning swing state indeed. But recall the 2021 victory of Virginia’s popular Governor Glenn Youngkin and the considerable Republican success in statewide down-ballot races that extended even to 2023; while Republicans narrowly lost their majority in the state legislature, they lost the statewide popular vote by a mere 35,748. If Ronna McDaniel had bothered to invest money and effort into these races, they would likely’ve gone the other way. But that is in the past and not particularly relevant to the present.
The RealClearPolitics average shows Mr. Biden gaining 44 percent to Mr. Trump’s 42 percent, making Virginia a completely unknown wildcard in this game. Mr. Trump’s competitiveness in the Commonwealth is attributed to Mr. Biden’s apparent and growing weakness among black voters, a shift rightward in Virginia’s Asian population, of which there is a great deal in Northern Virginia and amongst its Hispanic population. This, coupled with college-educated Whites returning to their 2016 rather than 2020 margins, will make this state very competitive in the fall.
Moreover, there will be panic about Virginia going for Mr. Trump, given that the polls close early and Fairfax County, a Northern Virginia county, and deep blue mammoth, is notoriously slow at counting. I think that in the fall, Virginia will be my most watched state, particularly in what the Richmond and Virginia Beach suburbs, along with Loudon and Prince William, will tell us about how Mr. Trump will perform later in the night in other suburb-heavy states (Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Mr. Trump needs to run up the margins in Virginia Beach with his working-class suburbanites, flip back Chesterfield, which has a large population of former Romeny voting college-educated voters and Hispanics, and run up his margin in Henrico, another suburban county that has a sizable African American population. He must hold his own in Northern Virginia by not necessarily winning Loudon, Fairfax, and Prince William, but at least getting margins comparable to Glenn Youngkin in his 2021 election.
If Virginia is this close, expect the similar battlegrounds of New Hampshire to be in play for Mr. Trump, New Jersey to be within single digits, and New York to come below 20 points, and for him to give a good account of himself in New Mexico. Based on this, we can conclude that Mr. Trump will be competitive in, even if not winning, states like Colorado, Maine, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington, and Illinois. From the polling, both statewide and national, we can conclude that Mr. Trump is the electoral college favorite and is, in all likelihood, destined to win the national popular vote similarly.
There's no clear-cut path for Mr. Trump, and there is a long way to November, but if his shifts among voters of color are real, and, if he can hold or reverse his suburban deficit, it's very likely in one of the nine battleground states—Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Virginia—at least one of them is destined to send him back to the White House.