I spent the entirety of my Fourth of July transfixed by British politics, with the BBC blaring in the living room as I stayed up most of the night—not watching a series of red, white, and blue fireworks but rather the resurgence of the 'red wall’ and the downfall of many blue Tory seats; the irony wasn't lost on me. The United Kingdom’s general election yesterday saw the Conservative Party‘s majority evaporate, going from 365 seats to a record low of 121, with the Labour Party, their socialist challenger, jumping from 210 to 412. This election is important; aside from the fact that one should always pay attention to the politics of the world's nuclear powers, we are witnessing a massive political realignment across the entire Western world.
Rishi Sunak, the former Prime Minister, assumed a record conservative majority; he and his 'One Nation Conservatives' (the Wets) had championed a return to sober governance after the unfortunate and unfair demise of the Thatcherite Ministry of Liz Truss. Yet after a series of gaffes, including skipping the Normandy D-day commemoration to do a television interview, an unprecedented amount of illegal migration, a cost of living crisis, out-of-control energy bills (courtesy of a disastrously implemented net zero), and the highest tax burden in seventy years—Mr Sunak and his Wet Tories have brought upon a historic defeat, with notable figures like Former Prime Minister Liz Truss (the first former premier to be ousted in 100 years), Penny Mourdant (the former Leader of the House of Commons), Jacob Rees-Mogg (the former Brexit Minister), Steve Baker (Minister of State for Northern Ireland), Grant Shapps (former Secretary of State for Defense), and many other familiar faces being ousted.
It was an annihilation of historic proportions and a resounding defeat for the Conservatives. Yet, it was not wrought by an earnest embrace of socialism's siren song but by the vengeful ire of a populace long disillusioned and taken for granted.
While credit is due to Sir Keir Starmer, KCB, and his successful leadership of the Labour Party—marked by his purge of the far-left Corbynites, his pivot to the centre (in the mould of Tony Blair), and tireless campaigning—this election was not necessarily a public embrace of himself nor ideology. Sir Starmer, though emerging victorious and receiving the focus of attention from the mainstream media, is the supporting character in a night that was ultimately the story of an all too familiar face—Nigel Farage.
Mr. Farage was the architect of Brexit, whose life’s work culminated in the referendum in 2016. He was also the founder and leader of the Reform Party, whose goal, in his own words, was to lead a “revolt against a political elite that has failed the British people.” Though on the centre-right, Reform and Farage's goal was not to defeat Labour (an impossible task) but specifically to weaken and punish Conservatives and to serve as "a real opposition" to the massive Labour majority. Having stood in the Clacton-on-Sea constituency, Mr. Fargage won his seat with 46 percent of the vote, unseating Tory Giles Watling. Though Mr. Farage’s Reform, it seems, will only finish with four or so seats, they finished in a close second in 98 seats, and despite Labour winning a majority of constituencies, Sir Starmer's party only garnered 34 percent nationally (a lower share of the vote than their defeat in 2017). Thus, the national tally seems to be Labour at 33 percent, the Conservatives at 23 percent, and Reform at 14 percent.
So what inspired so many voters of equally differing persuasions to join Mr. Farage’s revolt? Reform’s coalition was ethnically diverse and the second-most popular party among Gen Z. While pulling voters primarily from the Tories, it also ate away at many safe Labour seats in the North. What exactly does the public believe the “political elite” has “failed” at?
Immigration.
Since the Cameron-Clegg coalition (that of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats) took power in 2010, Lord Cameron’s Conservative government pledged to cut illegal migration down to the ‘10s of thousands.’ Yet in the last decade, net migration rose from 250,000 in 2016 to 760,000 in 2022. Brexit was, inarguably, a protest against the Free Movement of People policy of the European Union and a desire to enforce their immigration laws. However, immigration, particularly illegal immigration, has worsened since then. Net migration is now more than double the 2015 figure; as of 2022, 10.3 million people in England and Wales are foreign-born (of which only 3.5 million are EU nationals, whereas 6.8 million come from countries outside of the EU), adding to the strain on public services such as the National Health Service, which has a shortage of healthcare workers unable to keep up with this dramatic increase in population.
All across Europe, anger at non-Western migrants has flourished—many point to increases in crimes like rape, assault, robbery, and murder as being directly correlated with the influx of asylum seekers and migrants, who, according to the Danish government, are twice as likely to commit violent crime as native populations—four times as likely for robbery and five for rape. The backlash was manifested earlier this year across Europe. Anti-immigration parties swept the European Parliament elections, driven by an onslaught of support from young people. In France, Marie Le Pen's far-right national party topped the first round of the snap French election, receiving more votes than President Emmanuel Macron's centrist party.
Mr. Farage and Reform hammered the Tories for their inaction and perceived “betrayal” on immigration, with Mr. Farage boasting of a cut on “mass unskilled immigration... [that] has devalued the lives of everybody, giving us low productivity and a housing crisis,” adding that “We’ll get the Royal Marines involved and we’ll put these young men—who are from war zones, from cultures where women are not even regarded as second-class citizens—back on the beaches of Boulogne.”
Sir Starmer, echoing President George H.W. Bush, pledged, “Read my lips—I will bring immigration numbers down,” and insisted that Labour would “control our borders,” warning that “at the moment, 100% of those arriving in this country are staying for life at the taxpayer’s expense.” He added that the Rwanda plan, which proposes that migrants be deported to Rwanda to have their claims processed overseas, was a failed deterrent and impossible to implement. Sir Starmer pledged to work with France, even with Marine Le Pen, if needed, to crack down on boats crossing the Channel. He also reiterated the importance of hiring specialist investigators and expanding police powers to crack down on the gangs that smuggle migrants, which wooed many voters dissatisfied with the Tory handling of the crisis.
And while voters trusted Sir Starmer enough to hand him the keys to number 10, this was not necessarily a 'Blair-like' mandate to transform the country; Mr. Farage's Reform are the true victors of tonight, and their vote share and clear widespread support, particularly on the single issue of immigration, should concern both Labour and the Conservatives. Given the strength of Reform in the Red Wall, the traditionally working-class Labour seats that voted for Brexit, and the Tories in 2019, it would be wise for Sir Starmer to work with Mr. Farage on this issue—though having achieved his goal of punishing the Wets in the Conservative Party, it seems Mr. Farage has now turned his ire towards Labour setting up an electoral battle like to take place in 2029.
The truth of the matter is that the British people decided to punish a government that had been in power for 14 years for out-of-control immigration, which they, and the rest of Europe, view as a threat to their way of life, a strain on their public services, and negatively impacting social cohesion and public safety. It is clear now that Europe's future, rather than being a formerly thought-of haven for progressivism after the post-Great Recession annihilation of the ‘centre-left,’ is now witnessing a potential annihilation of the conventional ‘centre-right,’ with populist, eurosceptic, and anti-immigration parties surging in momentum.
All eyes now turn to the politics of the New World, where similar anger at the incumbent political establishment is likely to lead to the return of the world’s most famous populist in November.