The Republican Party has built a prison for itself, and Donald Trump is the warden. Kevin McCarthy, Ronna McDaniel, and the right-wing media have appeased Mr. Trump at every turn, from acquiescing to his demands to performing a Stalin-esque purge of any dissent. They have done this out of fear of the MAGA base, but in doing so, they have only solidified his position as leader of the GOP and scared away the coveted moderate and independent voter.
As this election cycle begins to come into its own, many in the Republican establishment quake with frustration. How is the front-runner someone who was defeated for re-election, cost the Republicans two Senate seats in Georgia, ebbed the looming red wave last fall, and now faces four criminal indictments?
Governor Ron DeSantis, who seemed the predestined Trump alternative, has floundered and underwhelmed. Whatever his own faults as a candidate may be, most of his failures are ultimately not his own fault. Nothing, however, exacerbated his humiliation more than when the New York Times obtained a copy of his pre-debate memo.
“1. Attack Joe Biden and the media 3-5 times.
2. State [DeSantis’s] positive vision 2-3 times.
3. Hammer Vivek Ramaswamy in a response.
4. Defend Donald Trump in absentia in response to a Chris Christie attack.”
Mr. DeSantis's strategy is perplexing. He does not dare provoke Mr. Trump, does not run against his policies, does not address his indictments, and only seeks to erode other candidates' support. I cannot recall a front-runner in recent presidential politics who was seemingly immune to criticism.
If Mr. DeSantis, and any other contenders, believe they are the best candidate to bear the Republican standard next fall, they should be willing to confront Mr. Trump head-on. Why does Mr. DeSantis seem incapable of defending his own policies and simultaneously criticizing Mr. Trump's policies? As the quintessential anti-lockdown candidate, why does he not attack the President who berated him for keeping Florida open?
The New Yorker‘s Benjamin Wallace-Wells reported:
Across several months, the source familiar with the campaign said that it consistently struggled to find a message critical of Trump that resonated with rank-and-file Republican voters. Even attaching Trump’s name to an otherwise effective message had a tendency to invert the results, this source said. If a moderator said that the Covid lockdowns destroyed small businesses and facilitated the largest upward wealth transfer in modern American history, seventy per cent of the Republicans surveyed would agree. But, if the moderator said that Trump’s Covid lockdowns destroyed small businesses and facilitated the largest upward wealth transfer in modern American history, the source said, seventy per cent would disagree
The fact that such a large swath of Republican voters is more likely to agree with a message that criticizes Mr. Trump, so long as his name is not attached to it, truly reflects the nature of his following. They are more interested in blindly following him rather than any set policy. When a party leader can insulate himself from any criticism, challenge, or accountability, it gives him carte blanche – which he has made sure to utilize.
Of course, the Republican voters who opposed Mr. Trump seem to have disembarked from the party ship. Democratic firm Catalist revealed a 24-point swing among white college-educated women toward Democrats from 2014 to 2018. In this first midterm, a repudiation of Mr. Trump, Democrats won 41 seats, including shocking losses in suburban Orange County, a famous bastion of the conservatism that sparked the Reagan Revolution. Democrats managed to flip all four Republican seats there. Interestingly enough, Mr. Trump was the first Republican to lose Orange County since 1936.
Exit polls in 2018, 2020, and 2022 showed Democrats winning independents by 12, 13, and 2 points, respectively. This is a clear sign that some of the suburban GOP-leaning voters simply do not identify with the party anymore. The expulsion of valuable voters by Mr. Trump was fatal. The strongest supporters for Mr. DeSantis and Mrs. Nikki Haley are a dwindling sect of college-educated voters, whose support for Republicans will once again erode with Mr. Trump on the ballot.
And how did Mr. Trump manage to position himself for a return in 2024?
We must journey back to the spring of 2021, a fragile time for the nation. A bitter and divisive election, a riot on the capital, an unstable economy, and rampant inflation—let alone the ongoing pandemic.
MAGA was on the decline. Angry conservative leaders decried January 6 as a threat to democracy. They criticized Mr. Trump for his failure to unequivocally denounce white supremacists. It was a widely held belief that militia groups like the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and the Three Percenters should be marginalized. Senator Ted Cruz referenced it as "a violent terrorist attack on the Capitol." Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell labeled it "a violent insurrection with the aim of preventing the peaceful transfer of power after a duly certified election from one administration to the next." Former Vice President Dick Cheney declared, "In our nation's 246-year history, there has never been an individual who posed a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He attempted to steal the last election through falsehoods and violence in order to retain power after the voters had rejected him."
The writing was on the wall for Mr. Trump. Mr. DeSantis seemed to hog all the media attention. Everyone in the party seemed interested in hanging up the red hat.
He had to strike fast. He needed to purge the opposition.
Representative Liz Cheney, the House Republican Conference chair, the third-highest position in the House Republican leadership, emerged as the most vocal and prominent opposition to Mr. Trump. And she was on the ‘un-select committee’, as he decried it. A bicameral commission, similar to the one used to investigate 9/11, passed the House but was ultimately filibustered by Senate Republicans. Speaker Pelosi decided to use a select committee as a Plan B option.
Kevin McCarthy, then minority leader, nominated Jim Banks, Jim Jordan, Rodney Davis, Kelly Armstrong, and Troy Nehls to the committee. Mr. Banks, Mr. Jordan, and Mr. Nehls had voted to reject the Electoral College results in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Mrs. Pelosi did not approve the selection of Mr. Jordan and Mr. Banks, citing that statements and actions by the two members could compromise the investigation. Mrs. Pelosi did approve the selections of the other three, but Mr. McCarthy refused to appoint anyone unless he got everyone he had nominated. Ceding control to Mrs. Pelosi, who had pledged to find willing Republicans, this left only Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney on the committee.
Mrs. Cheney had voted to impeach Mr. Trump, on charges of incitement of insurrection, in his second impeachment trial. For this, many members of the Freedom Caucus attempted to stage a coup d'état against her. Hoping to oust her from her conference position, they held a closed-door, anonymous vote to remove or keep her.
Senator Joni Ernst condemned this attempt as being akin to cancel culture. Mr. McConnell defended her as “a leader with deep convictions and the courage to act on them.” Senator Lindsay Graham heaped praise on Mrs. Cheney, describing her as “one of the strongest and most reliable conservative voices in the Republican Party. She is a fiscal and social conservative, and no one works harder to ensure that our military is well prepared.” The vote failed. Mrs. Cheney had staunch support.
Mr. McCarthy voiced his opposition to the removal of Liz Cheney. And then, presumably, he received a phone call. The Godfather wished to see him. Mr. McCarthy started off by denouncing Mr. Trump for the January 6 attack, but just a few weeks later, he visited Mr. Trump's golf club in Florida. For some unexplained reason that truly highlights Mr. McCarthy's lack of understanding of "the game," he seemed to decide it was viable to placate the former president.
Mr. Trump was beaten. He was routed by a feeble old man and denounced by all. In 2021, the census had given Republicans a serious House advantage. President Biden was incredibly unpopular. A favorable senate map left many salivating at the prospect of a red wave.
Yet, Mr. McCarthy and many others still believed that they still needed the influence of Mr. Trump to win. This was odd, as he had just bungled the Georgia elections earlier that month. It is shocking that when you convince large sects of your base that their vote doesn’t matter because it’s “rigged,” and have your stooges do nothing but decry their opponents as “socialists,” it is no wonder that electoral success does not follow.
Mr. McCarthy had come to Mar-a-Lago to bend the knee and pledge fealty to the “MAGA Godfather.” Mr. Trump is many things, but he is not forgiving. He needed an offering, a sacrifice, on the scale of God demanding Abraham sacrifice his firstborn. He needed Mr. McCarthy to offer an establishment Republican that party insiders felt they could not bear to lose.
What a sheer coincidence that after Mr. McCarthy visited Florida many times, he suddenly had a change of heart by May. On a hot mic, Mr. McCarthy was suddenly caught bashing Mrs. Cheney. It is interesting that this was important to him, rather than focusing on an agenda to retake the House. Maybe Mr. McCarthy wouldn't have needed to rely on Lee Zeldin to gift him the House seats for his present-day razor-thin majority if he had not suddenly shifted his efforts to removing the woman who was in charge of articulating the Republican electoral strategy.
Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, Ted Cruz, and Marjorie Taylor-Greene could not be more different. And yet, a solid 90% of the time they are voting in sync. All of them are united in opposition to "wokeness" and the policies of the Biden administration. Mrs. Cheney, according to FiveThirtyEight, voted with Trump 92% of the time. But policy does not matter, only loyalty.
Mr. McCarthy approved a second vote to remove Mrs. Cheney from leadership. Of course, despite many representatives desiring a recorded vote, Mr. McCarthy chose to decide the matter by a closed-door voice vote. When the proverbial smoke cleared, Mrs. Cheney was gone. Replaced by a, legislatively, less-conservative Elise Stefanik. But Mrs. Stefanik had become "made" by the "MAGA" mafia. The Godfather's hit had succeeded.
After Mrs. Cheney's untimely departure, the narrative against January 6, Mr. Trump, and the drift from conservatism waned. Many Republicans, who had been so outspoken against Mr. Trump prievously, capitulated in the face of this development. Mr. Cruz turned away from his prior position, telling Tucker Carlson that, despite being a Harvard-educated lawyer and prosecutor who would choose words carefully, he had misspoken. Mr. Carlson was quick to pounce, calling him out for it.
The Heritage Foundation removed a post that placed blame on Mr. Trump for the Capitol riot. Mr. McConnell said he would absolutely support Trump as the 2024 nominee. Conservatives who opposed Mr. Trump, rather than combat him head-on, shifted to a new strategy of simply pretending he does not exist.
This is how we arrived at this peculiar point in the run-up to 2024. This is how all criticism of Mr. Trump is limited, and candidates still feel the need to run to his defense, and they would rather run against each other. Because, after Mrs. Cheney was ousted, they all fear they could be next.
Thus, Mr. Trump has locked the party establishment in a deep cell. And thrown away the key.