Trump's Iowa Victory Masks His Broader Electoral Challenges Ahead
45 Faces a Growing 'Never Trump' Movement Within His Party and Diminished Appeal Among A Crucial Voter Demographic
“I cannot see myself voting for Trump under any circumstances. He’s an insurrectionist and a criminal, and I will not support him.” - Greg, an Iowa Republican voter caucusing for Nikki Haley, in comments to The Dispatch
Monday's Caucus in Iowa reaffirmed the palpable dread that many have felt about Donald Trump's inevitable coronation as the Republican nominee for 2024. Voting commenced in Iowa at 7:00 PM, and as precinct captains were still giving their stump speeches— Trump was the projected winner by almost all media outlets at 7:30 PM, based on exit polling alone. He won by a thirty-point margin, carrying 98 out of 99 counties. He carried a plurality of college-educated voters by 9 points; he carried voters without a degree by 53, urban voters by 20, and rural by 31.
Despite the denial permeating throughout many in the Haley and DeSantis camps, those who claim that "real Republicans" did not want Mr. Trump as the nominee—we have votes from Republicans that show that they overwhelmingly prefer Mr. Trump as the nominee. Any doubts about the ownership of the Republican party have been quelled—it is Mr. Trump's party, he is the new establishment, and MAGA, not Reaganism, is the new flavor of conservatism.
Many, such as Mitch McConnell, Pat Toomey, and others, thought that after defeat, Mr. Trump would go away. They suggested that after the abysmal Republican performance in the 2022 midterms, Mr. Trump's brand would simply die out and that voters would want something 'new.' This was a laughable falsehood and known as such to all except those who, deep down, did not want to embrace this new reality. Should Mr. Trump be re-nominated, as the evidence and polling suggest, he cements his place as the party's thought leader and is a reaffirmation of his remolding of the Republican party in his image.
Many on the ground, encouraged by surprisingly accurate polling that showed little contest, opted to sit this caucus out. Only 110,000 Republicans participated in this year's caucus, less than the 187,000 who partook in the far more competitive 2016 cycle. Mr. Trump soared to an unprecedented landslide victory, becoming the first non-incumbent Republican to score more than 50 percent in Iowa. The snowstorm and temperatures of thirty degrees below zero may have hampered turnout, but many heeded Mr. Trump's advice to go out and vote for him, being told voting for him was worth it even if they ended up “sick as a dog” and died.
Of course, while Mr. Trump celebrates this as an unprecedented victory, and many in his team believe that this is a sign of positive things to come—it is anything but. He emerges much weaker among his conservative constituency than before. Many conservatives have joined “Never Trump”, and when I reference these people, I do not mean the “Romney-Biden” moderate suburban voters; they fled the GOP 8 years ago, potentially never to return. I mean those who supported Ron DeSantis, possibly the country's most conservative governor, and Nikki Haley, whose political career spawned during the grassroots Tea Party movement in 2010.
Mr. Trump and his team waged a relentless war against Ron DeSantis and his campaign team, with Mr. Trump's surrogates even suggesting that Casey DeSantis, Mr. DeSantis' wife, had faked her breast cancer diagnosis as an election strategy to gain sympathy votes. Mr. Trump and his team have vowed to primary all sitting Republican members of Congress who endorsed Ron DeSantis, and a particularly feisty battle is heating up in Virginia's 5th Congressional District, where Representative Bob Good is facing a Trump-backed primary challenger over his “sin” of endorsing Mr. DeSantis.
And, of course, those more foreign-policy-minded Republicans, such as myself, who seem to be predominantly rallied behind Nikki Haley—have been told to shoo by Mr. Trump and his latest protégé Vivek Ramaswamy. Mr. Ramaswamy said on X: “I'll give Ron DeSantis immense credit if he does the right thing & drops out before the NH primary. Most of his votes will go to Trump & we can end this primary to make sure that Nikki & her 'neocon ilk never come anywhere near the White House.” Both he and Mr. Trump have blasted Mrs. Haley as a “warmongering globalist.” As one of those sinister foreign policy hawks who seem to be MAGA's scapegoat for every problem in the world, I can say confidently that the idea that we are globalists is laughable. Particularly considering that 'neocons' often champion unilateral military action and completely disregard the will of the United Nations. If anything, we are the true exemplars of 'America-first.'
But it is becoming clear that those of us who do not float towards the siren song of isolationism and adhere to constitutional conservatism are not wanted by this nascent populist movement that seems to have captured the entire Republican party. Of course—this has its perils for MAGA-land. The 'Never Trump' movement appears to have grown, no longer encompassing Ivy League suburbanites and commentators such as Bill Kristol and Jonah Goldberg. Instead, NBC reports that nearly half of Haley's Iowa backers say they'd vote for Biden over Trump. The Des Moines Register found that 25 percent of Iowa Republican caucus-goers won't vote for Trump in November.
Many wings of Mr. DeSantis' and Mrs. Haley's constituencies are now joining the 'Never Trump' movement' which means that alarmingly for Mr. Trump, his strength with conservative Republicans will be weaker than it was in 2020. Matt Gaetz, a stalwart Trump defender and congressman from the Florida panhandle, dismissed these concerns. “I've met with a lot of those folks. This is the blue-collar realignment of the Republican Party,” Mr. Gatez claimed adding that, “And what I can tell you is for every Karen we lose, there's a there's a Julio and Jamal ready to sign up for the MAGA movement." Christina Pushaw, the Rapid Response Director for the DeSantis campaign, translated Mr. Gaetz's comments perfectly: “White women, we don't need your vote.”
Maybe the Trump team would do well to hire a different diversity outreach director than Mr. Gaetz, particularly given the negative feedback his comments received on X. Of course, white women were a major contributor to the defeat of Mr. Trump in 2020. Exit polls, data, and precinct maps revealed that Mr. Trump's defeat to Joe Biden was primarily due to voters in large suburbs and that his unprecedented deficit with suburban women contributed to his defeat.
Considering how very few who voted against Mr. Trump will be inclined to do so now, considering his ninety-one indictments, four separate criminal trials, his pending defamation suit in which he was held civilly liable by a court in New York for sexual abuse, the January 6th riot, his unhinged and rather bizarre comments, and well, the fact that he's Donald Trump. With conservatives seeming to opt out of the whole electoral process and Mr. Trump's narrow appeal that appears to remain within his party's base, it becomes less likely that he will emerge victorious. While polls show him defeating Mr. Biden, many state polls have both candidates under 50 percent, with many undecideds. The Biden campaign's polling team has reported that 75 percent of the campaign's targeted undecided voters do not believe Trump will be the Republican nominee—and it is incredibly likely that Mr. Biden will recapture the lead once Mr. Trump is confirmed as his general election opponent.
So Mr. Trump's big win in Iowa, while significant within the party, offers little insight into his prospects in the upcoming general election. Mr. Trump's undeniable command over the Republican base and his reshaping of the party in his image underscore his enduring appeal among party loyalists. But this will not extend to the broader electorate at large.
The general election is always a stark contrast from party primaries and caucuses. Despite his overwhelming success in Iowa, a predominantly white working-class rural state, one where one would expect Mr. Trump to do well, his divisive tactics and the expanding 'Never Trump' movement among conservative circles hint at a challenging road ahead in appealing to a broader national audience. Key demographics that shifted away from the GOP in recent elections, especially suburban women, remain critical in determining the presidential race's outcome.
As such, while this result is a testament to his continued influence within the Republican party, it does little to alter the complex and multifaceted landscape of the upcoming general election, where broader appeal beyond the party faithful will be crucial.
A correction was made on
Jan. 21, 2024:
An earlier version of this article accidentally listed that Mr. Trump was found liable for rape. Mr. Trump has only been found liable for sexual abuse against E. Jean Carroll. The article has been amended.